Topic 4: CRUDE: BLISSFUL FALL

Crude oil prices declined further in November 2025, falling by approximately 2.6% over the month as persistent oversupply and weak global demand outweighed short-term geopolitical tensions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude opened near $64.89 per barrel on November 1 and ended the month around $63.20. Prices oscillated between a high of $65.10 on November 11 and a low of $61.57 on November 25, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment. Repeated failures to break above the key $65 resistance level reinforced a negative technical outlook.

The dominant factor behind the decline was a significant global supply glut. OPEC+ increased production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day in November, part of a broader production rise of more than 2.5 million barrels per day since April. The group’s strategy prioritized maintaining market share rather than defending price levels. At the same time, strong output from non-OPEC producers—especially the United States, Brazil, and Guyana—added further to excess supply. Global oversupply was estimated at around 2.7 million barrels per day, creating unsold cargoes and a rise in floating storage.

US crude production remained at record levels, with output holding around 13.6 million barrels per day through November and forecasts of about 13.5 million barrels per day for 2025–26. Growing inventories added to downward pressure on prices, with estimates suggesting stock builds of roughly 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Even new US sanctions on Russian oil companies and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused only brief upward price spikes of around 5%, as Russian exports continued via shadow fleets and alternative buyers, preventing any lasting supply disruption.

On the demand side, economic weakness in major consuming regions further depressed oil prices. China’s October trade data indicated slowing exports, reinforcing concerns of subdued energy demand from the world’s largest oil importer. Uncertainty around the effectiveness of Chinese stimulus measures added to bearish sentiment. In the United States, consumption softened amid economic and policy uncertainty, while global oil demand growth was estimated at just 1.1 million barrels per day—insufficient to absorb the rapid increase in production.

Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Ukraine conflict and global trade frictions driven by US tariff policies, contributed to market volatility but did not significantly disrupt physical supply flows. As a result, price rallies remained short-lived and were quickly reversed by technical selling, especially near the 50-day moving average.

Overall, November 2025 was characterized by excess supply, weak demand indicators, and strong resistance to any sustained price recovery. The persistent imbalance between production and consumption kept crude oil under pressure, leading to a modest but steady monthly decline and setting a fragile tone for the market heading into December.

Top | Back
The information contained herein (the “Information”) may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without prior written permission from the Company. The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and the views being expressed only constitute opinions and therefore cannot be considered as guidelines, recommendations or as a professional guide for the readers. The document has been prepared based on publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The directors, employees, affiliates or representatives (“Entities & their affiliates”) do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Readers are advised to rely on their own analysis, interpretations & investigations. Certain statements made in this presentation may not be based on historical information or facts and may be forward looking statements including those relating to general business plans and strategy, future financial condition and growth prospects, and future developments in industries and competitive and regulatory environments. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, they do involve several assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. Readers are also advised to seek independent professional advice to arrive at an informed investment decision. Entities & their affiliates including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document shall not be liable in any way for direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including on account of the lost profits arising from the information contained in this material. Readers alone shall be fully responsible for any decision taken based on this document.
Copyright © 2022 Fintso